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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still